Ações estratégicas para o Brasil no novo cenário geopolítico da Era Digital, segundo a Eurasia Group

The future of technology industry and the design of the global value chains are being actively reconfigured by Geopolitics in the Digital Age, a central theme in the lecture given by Silvio Cascione, director of Eurasia Group in Brazil. With over 15 years of experience in political and economic analysis, Cascione detailed the complex interconnections between state power and technological dominance. Cascione was the keynote speaker at the ABES SUMMIT 2025.

The “G0” and the rise of Technopolarity

The global scenario, according to Cascione, is characterized by the “G0” — the absence of an effective global leadership group (such as the G7, G20, or the UN) capable of solving challenges such as the climate crisis and digital evolution. Current organizations are proving inadequate, opening the way for Asia, with emphasis on China, grow exponentially on the economic stage.

In this leadership vacuum, the “technopolarity”: the private sector dominance in critical technologies. The speaker cited the role of companies such as Elon Musk's Starlink in the Ukraine War as a compelling example of how private technological power can have a direct geopolitical impact. The conflict between states and corporations over the control and regulation of these technologies defines the new order. China, with its model of state control, and the USA, with a dominant private sector, represent distinct approaches to technological governance.

The US vs. China Strategic Dispute

The rivalry between USA and China permeates digital geopolitics, despite the deep economic and technological connection between the two powers. The dispute focuses on strategic areas such as chips and critical minerals, defined as “choke points” — strategic bottlenecks used for competitive advantage.

US policy has evolved from an attempt to restrict Chinese access to chips to a accelerated technological race. However, China holds a strategic advantage in the production of critical minerals, a factor that decisively impacts global industry and the energy transition.

Opportunities and actions for Brazil

For Brazil, Cascione sees a scenario of structural challenges and strategic assets. lack of qualified labor, the low attraction of foreign talent and high interest rates are obstacles. On the other hand, the country is a energy and agricultural power, it has critical minerals and has a large and digitalized domestic market (example: the success of PIX).

To take advantage of the global technological momentum, Cascione recommended strategic actions to Brazil:

Encourage the training of qualified workforce in STEM areas (Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics).
Promote policies to attract foreign talent.
Foster public-private partnerships to leverage technology investments.
Diversify markets through trade agreements with the European Union, Canada and Southeast Asia.
Invest in research and exploration of critical minerals to strengthen the country's position in the global value chain.

The lecture highlighted that, in the Digital Age, a nation's sovereignty and economic development intrinsically depend on its ability to navigate and capitalize on this new "technological cold war."

About ABES SUMMIT

The 15th edition of ABES SUMMIT, held in October 8th at the JW Marriott, in São Paulo, had as its central theme “Digital Frontiers – Geopolitics, Technology and Sustainability”. The event promoted a day of immersion for CEOs, leaders and government representatives, aiming to highlight the power of technology to accelerate business and economic transformation. In a scenario of global recalibration where technology and geopolitics intertwine, the ABES SUMMIT discussed practical strategies to address challenges such as the dominance of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Agentic AI, a cybersecurity global, regulation and public policies, and the qualification of workforce. The focus was on the strategic role of Brazil, which can establish itself as a global protagonist in energy transition, in the preservation of biodiversity and digital advancement, due to its clean matrix and innovation ecosystem. The ABES SUMMIT 2025 featured free online broadcast it's the BMV seal, offsetting 100% of environmental impacts.